The 10 stats that have defined the Wizards season (2024)

The Wizards have a couple of days off before they take on the Cavaliers.

Before they do, let’s look at 10 niche statistics that define their season thus far.

7.5 restricted area shots a game

For all the talk about John Wall’s lack of explosion this season — and that’s not just confined to random fans; people around the league have noticed the same — a purported slower first step hasn’t limited his burst to the rim. Wall is third in the NBA amongst guards in restricted area field-goal attempts per game, behind only former MVP Russell Westbrook and Bulls binge bucketeer Zach LaVine.

Wall has never before averaged so many shots close to the rim. And it’s not even like his effectiveness as a finisher has dwindled. He’s made 58.6 percent of his shots in the restricted area, the exact same figure he hit when he made his only All-NBA team in 2017.

The improved shot selection is part of an offensive overhaul that’s changed the Wizards — though not always for the better.

109.9 points per 100 possessions

The early-season swoon is looking more and more swoonish with each game the Wizards play.

On the morning of Nov. 10, the Wizards were 2-9. They ranked 29thin defensive efficiency and 26thin offensive efficiency, scoring 104.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s changed since.

Washington has started making more shots during its 9-5 stretch to pull to 11-14. It’s scoring 109.9 points per 100 since Nov. 10, 10thin the NBA.

The shot selection has improved from last year, though it’s been nowhere as extreme as it was in the preseason, when the Wizards were Rockets-like in chucking from beyond the arc and at the rim. Washington is up to 17th from 28thin the percentage of its shots that come from within three feet of the hoop, and it’s down to 14th from fifthin jumpers from 16 feet out to the 3-point line.

Shot quality has mostly stayed the same during the winning slate. The Wizards are rolling about two more restricted area attempts a game during the 9-5 streak. They’ve been barely more deliberate with 3-point shooting. The Wizards have preyed, however, with an offense that rarely ever turns the ball over. They’re giving it away on only 13 percent of possessions over these 14 games, second-best in the NBA.

Sometimes, basketball is simple: The more opportunities to score, the more a team is going to do so.

The John Wall jump: 19.1 points per 100 possessions

Let’s talk Wall awkwardness for a bit.

The Wizards have been 5.1 points per 100 possessions better with Wall on the bench this season. And if someone had to simplify the team’s success during the 9-5 run into one number, the above stat might be it.

Wall missed Wednesday’s 14-point win in Atlanta for personal reasons. And it turns out, that margin of victory isn’t so rare when he’s not on the floor. Washington has gotten outscored by 6.4 points per 100 possessions when Wall is on the floor over the last 14 games. Meanwhile, it’s outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per 100 when he’s on the bench.

That’s an unfathomable 19.1 point-per-100 difference.

The phenomenon is occurring on both sides of the floor. The Wizards are 12 points per 100 more efficient on offense and seven per 100 better on defense when Wall’s not playing.

They shoot five percentage points better with Wall on the bench. Mid-range attempts plummet from more than 17 per 48 minutes to less than 10 when he’s not there. The long 2s turn into more 3s and layups. Washington gets to the line more, too. It’s not just that lineups with Tomas Satoransky as the sole creator are dominating, either.

For the season, when Bradley Beal is on the floor with Wall, the Wizards get outscored by 4.4 points per 100 possessions. When Beal is playing without his five-time All-Star point guard teammate, the Wizards are 8.1 points per 100 better than opponents.

Some of these numbers are just noise. The bench lineup has been far better on the boards than the starters have and that’s less Wall’s fault than it is four other guys’. But the drop-off when Wall is present has become difficult to ignore.

79.1 offensive efficiency

First, a necessary statement: Going one-on-one isn’t always bad.

Basketball fans have this tendency to see isolation play and immediately demean it. We’re trained to believe that squaring up an individual defender is the antithesis to effective scoring, a self-inflicting move the worst offenses turn to for shots. But that’s not always true.

The Rockets, for example, are averaging far more isolation possessions than any other team for a second straight season, per Synergy Sports, but they do selfish unselfishly. Their offense is better off with one-on-one play (partly because reigning MVP James Harden is the NBA’s most efficient iso performer). But the team that sits second in isolation possessions has a problem.

That would be the Wizards, who are 23rdin the NBA in isolation efficiency in spite of their high volume. Much of that is on Wall, who is averaging the second-most iso possessions a game to Harden. Yet, the Wizards average only 79.1 points per 100 possessions on plays that end in shots, passes or turnovers out of his isolations, per Synergy.

For perspective, the worst offense of the last 20 years, belonging to the unforgettable 2003 Nuggets, scored 91.2 points per 100.

A star perimeter player’s isolation numbers are always at risk of bogging down. Guys like Wall receive loads of end-of-clock opportunities. Difficult shots go in less and the best players, no matter what, have to take more difficult shots. Still, of the 24 players averaging more than three isolation possessions a game, per Synergy, Wall ranks exactly 24thin this stat.

He still regularly goes through the one-on-one motions early in the clock. But he doesn’t need to do it.

Road Oubre vs. Home Oubre

Somewhere, some progressive NBA team is working with biologists and psychologists to see if they can split Kelly Oubre in half by the time free agency comes, so they can sign what they’ll call some variation of “Road Oubre” to a massive deal during July’s free agency and then watch Home Oubre head elsewhere for the minimum.

Let’s just toss these numbers next to each other because, my goodness, they are the essence of early-season weirdness carrying into the not-so-early-season.

On the road, Oubre is a true offensive threat. At home, he’s the fourth-worst long-range shooter of any NBA player averaging three-or-more triples in his own arena. The only other player whose splits come close to as drastic in this direction is the Rockets’ Eric Gordon, who’s nailing 24 percent of his 3s at home and 38 percent of them on the road. But even Gordon isn’t as disparate.

This is bound to even out over the course of the year (one would assume). And Oubre’s home/road numbers have always been nothing but normal. So far, this is anything but that.

28.9 percent opponent free-throw rate

The Wizards aren’t so bad on defense — in some areas. Thanks to the cushy recent schedule, they’ve made an historic leap all the way into a tie for … 25thin points allowed per possession after meandering at 29thfor a bit.

What a ride it was. Their defensive efficiency is closer to 19ththan 29thnow.

Don’t get too excited. They could still easily be in 29thin, like, two games. Washington still can’t stop ball-handlers.

It’s the first checkpoint whenever a reporter asks Brooks about defensive problems. He uses some form of “stop,” “handle” or “contain.” He’ll toss in a phrase about how the Wizards don’t seal off other teams at the “point of attack.” Some of this is on Wall’s screen-deferring defense. Other are on lack of defensive communication from big men, whether the inexperienced Thomas Bryant or veteran Markieff Morris. It’s on slow rotations from the outside. Oubre or Beal have been culprits.

But when defenses don’t contain at the point of attack, they’re more frantic. And when they’re more frantic, they foul.

The Wizards are 24thin the NBA in opponent free-throw rate. Six of the 10 teams in the bottom 10 in that stat are also bottom 10 in defensive efficiency.

.472 winning percentage

The Wizards should feel fortunate they’re in the East.

At 11-14, they somehow enter Thursday’s slate only a half-a-game out of eighth. Even after the 2-9 start, they’re in a position to grab a playoff spot. And their road is easier than most other teams’.

Their remaining opponents have only a .472 combined winning percentage, according to Tankathon.com. If 41 wins is good for No. 8 or even No. 7 in the East, the Wizards — unless disaster strikes — should get there.

(Famous last words, I know.)

17 out of 25

Even when the Wizards win, they have a tendency to get crushed.

They’ve trailed by double-digit points in five of their 11 wins this year. Maybe they’re resilient. Or maybe they just don’t put the quarters in the Pac-Man until halftime. Either way, it’s impeccably odd.

Of the Wizards’ 25 games played, they’ve trailed by double-digits in 17 of them. And the numbers broken down by half tell the arcs of their days even more than the large in-game deficits.

Plus-27 and change

Wall and Beal haven’t had loads of success together, but place them with an unconventional center, and that changes — especially so in one, specific lineup Brooks hasn’t turned to much.

The group of Wall, Beal, Porter, Jeff Green and Morris has played 47 minutes this season and is outscoring opponents by 27.5 points per 100 possessions. It’s the second-best lineup in the NBA that’s played at least 46 minutes. Yet, because of Green and Wall missing games along with Brooks simply not relying on it, the fivesome hasn’t played together in more than a week.

Still, Brooks has gotten creative — and he’s discovered some potentially helpful units. His new starting lineup of Wall, Beal, Satoransky, Porter and Bryant has played in only three games together (43 minutes), but it’s dominated in that time, outscoring opponents (mostly bad ones, given the Wizards’ schedule) by 27.6 points per 100.

That number can and will change fast. Brooks has said he’s sticking with Satoransky in the starting lineup for the time being. It won’t sustain anywhere close to that number in time. But if the group continues to succeed, he’ll have no reason to make any change. Especially given all the slow starts the Wizards have gotten out to this season, finding a lineup that can merely maintain to begin games would be a massive upgrade on what was there before.

The starters with Dwight Howard, for example, got outscored by 10.6 points per 100. The first unit with Oubre got leveled by 16.9 points per 100.

116.3 defensive efficiency

Yes, that’s how many points per 100 possessions the Wizards are allowing in first halves, when they get outscored by 9.9 points per 100 on average, 28thin the NBA.

Narrow the numbers down to just first quarters, when the Wizards often find themselves down by scores most common in exaggerated children’s basketball movies, and they’re even more hideous. The Wizards lose firsts by 12.9 points per 100, second-worst in the NBA to the team they blew out start to finish Wednesday, the Hawks.

Maybe the best way to display exactly how poor the Wizards have been at the beginning of games is to show how much better they’ve been at the end. Granted, second-half data can get murky. It includes garbage time, and the Wizards have been maniacs for meaningless minutes. Heck, they played about 16 minutes of true garbage time in their recent loss in Philadelphia.

Still, the Wizards are outscoring their opponents in second half by 1.2 points per 100 possessions. Yet, here they are, three games below .500 and outside the East’s playoff picture.

Blame the early-game miscues. It’s the trend of the season so far.

(Top photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images)